Trends to watch
Customs wars
Last week, President Trump announced planned reciprocal tariffs for three more partners: Canada (35%), the European Union (30%), and Mexico (30%).
It is currently unknown whether imported goods will be exempt from these duties under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
As of today, President Trump has released letters detailing proposed tariffs for more than two dozen trading partners. All are expected to take effect on August 1, if confirmed by executive order or Federal Register notice. The full list of tariffs is available on our live blog.
The letters state: if any of the countries raises tariffs on American goods, the United States will raise its tariff rate in response to the same level.
It also states that any goods that are transited to avoid higher duties will be taxed at this higher rate.
Given the extended pause on the imposition of country-specific tariffs, all U.S. trading partners will remain under current reciprocal tariffs until August 1 — except for China, for which the 10% rate ends on August 12.
Agreement between the United States and Indonesia
On July 15, the US and Indonesia announced a trade deal that would impose a 19% reciprocal tariff on Indonesian goods imported into the US. The news reversed Trump’s previous announcement of a 32% tariff on Indonesia, announced a week ago on Truth Social.
EU postpones tariffs in response to US
Shortly after Trump announced his intention to impose a 30% reciprocal tariff on EU goods, the European Union announced on July 14 that it would postpone the retaliatory tariffs until early August. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU would try to reach a trade deal with the US during this time.
Section 301: Brazil Investigation
On July 15, the USTR (United States Trade Representative) announced the launch of a Section 301 investigation into Brazil — less than a week after Trump proposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods. The investigation will cover digital trade, electronic payments, “unfair tariffs,” anti-corruption policies, and more.
Other possible duties:
- July 2: Trump announced a 20% reciprocal tariff on Vietnam and 40% on goods transiting through Vietnam.
- July 6: Trump announced his intention to impose a 10% tariff on imports from BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and others). This tariff would be in addition to those already in effect.
- July 8: Trump announced that he plans to impose pharmaceutical tariffs of up to 200%, but will first give manufacturers a year to move production to the US.
- July 9: Trump announced that a 50% tariff on copper imports would take effect on August 1, following the conclusion of a national security investigation by the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Sea transportation
Pacific Route East (TPEB)
Capacity and demand:
- Demand will remain stable in July and August.
- Carrier load factors in July are 80–90%, with a slight decrease to 75–86% expected in August.
- Despite the suspension of some flights to the US Southwest and isolated cancellations, the market has excess capacity relative to demand. The space is open.
- There are delays on routes from Southeast Asian ports due to congestion in Malaysia and Singapore – an additional 3-5 days to standard transit time is expected.
Equipment: Most points of origin have sufficient containers, there is no shortage at the moment.
Freight rates:
- West Coast of the US: Some carriers have announced rate increases starting July 15 (GRI), while others are leaving rates unchanged or offering “special rates,” which widens the price spread.
- East Coast and Gulf of Mexico: Floating rates stabilized, seasonal surcharges (PSS) also eased through the end of July.
Far East Westbound (FEWB)
Capacity and demand:
- The average weekly throughput in July is 306,100 TEU (+19% compared to June), reflecting the peak of the season.
- The cancellation of flights in week 29 has led to significant delays. Carriers will focus on liquidating the accumulated cargo for 1-2 weeks.
- Peak season demand has exceeded carriers’ expectations, growing steadily since June.
- Ship delays and shipment postponements are extending the Black Friday and Christmas delivery windows — the season could last longer than in 2024.
Equipment:
- Due to constant flight delays and strict control over the issuance of containers, the shortage of equipment will persist in the near future.
- Gemini has added an additional vessel, but alternative routes are adding 2-4 weeks to delivery times. OA and PA alliances are limiting equipment access for new bookings to weeks 31-32.
- Container booking and delivery windows have been significantly reduced.
Forecast:
- In the short term (July): Stability in rates and volumes is expected. Tight capacity controls may not meet high demand, possible container and space constraints until late July or early August.
- In the medium term (August and beyond): Carriers may pause further rate increases to maintain current levels and extend the profitable peak season.
Freight rates:
- Rates have stabilized after rising in June. The latest SCFI index rate is $2.099 per TEU (-$2).
- This indicates market stabilization in July and possible difficulties with the implementation of new GRIs in the second half of the month.
External risks:
Red Sea: Renewed Houthi attacks on container ships mean that carriers will not consider this route in the coming months.
EU: Trump’s planned 30% tariff on European goods (from August 1) could reduce demand for industrial products and affect the flow of goods. But due to the predominance of consumer goods in Asian-European trade, this will have a limited effect on raw materials.
Transatlantic westbound
Capacity and demand:
- PSA Port Antwerp is still congested, with an average cargo dwell time of eight days.
- Ship delays of up to three to four days are being recorded in Hamburg, Bremerhaven and Rotterdam.
- Piraeus, Genoa and Valencia are also reporting significant congestion and overcrowded terminals.
- Demand for exports from Northern Europe to the US remains stable, with bookings from Germany, Benelux and Spain in particular increasing due to holiday preparations.
- Blanked flights (cancelled) are only about 5%, the lowest since March. Capacity is stable.
Equipment:
Austria, Slovakia, Hungary and the south/east of Germany are facing shortages of containers and chassis. Portugal is also facing problems with container imbalances.
Freight rates:
In Northern Europe, the Western Mediterranean and the Eastern Mediterranean, all carriers have postponed the implementation of PSS (seasonal surcharges) scheduled for July.
Rates are expected to remain stable through the end of the third quarter.
Indian subcontinent → North America
Capacity and demand:
- Capacity to the US East Coast has increased — July traditionally marks the peak season on the Indian subcontinent.
- One carrier is returning vessels to the Northeast India → US East Coast route, temporarily excluding the port of Charleston to improve service reliability. Additional capacity to the US West Coast has become available through increased capacity on the TPEB (Pacific route) and services that allow exporters from India to direct cargo to the US West Coast.
Freight rates:
- To US East Coast: While GRI and PSS were announced for the first half of July, these increases have not generally been implemented. Due to the wide variation in bookings and market load, traditional peak season demand may not be enough to support rate increases — especially given the return of capacity on the India–US East Coast route.
- On the US West Coast: GRIs did not take root in the market, and PSSs declined in line with TPEB dynamics.
- Exports from Pakistan continue to face increased costs and transit times due to the need for additional feeder vessels due to the conflict between India and Pakistan.
Air transportation
Week 27: June 30 – July 6, 2025:
- Global air cargo volumes fell by -3% week-on-week (WoW) in early July, mainly driven by an -11% drop from North America due to the US Independence Day celebrations.
- Volumes from China and Hong Kong to Europe grew by +15% year-on-year (YoY) in June, reaching a 2025 peak.
- In contrast, volumes from the Asia-Pacific region to the US decreased by -3% WoW, although spot rates in this direction increased by +3% WoW.
Impact of holidays and dynamics of advanced imports:
- Demand remained volatile due to the impact of holidays and import deadlines.
- Peak activity before the scheduled end of the pause in mutual duties (postponed from July 9 to August 1) was limited.
Capacity changes and route rerouting:
Changes in availability and routes, especially from the Asia-Pacific region, are related to: risks of new tariffs, changes to de minimis rules, adaptations of routes for e-commerce.
Ocean Timeliness Indicator
Transit times from China to the US West Coast and to the US East Coast have increased slightly, while the route from China to Northern Europe has seen a significant reduction in transit times.
Week of July 14, 2025:
- China → US West Coast: Delivery time increased by 1 day — from 37.1 to 38.1 days.
- China → Northern Europe: Delivery time decreased by 2.3 days — from 60 to 57.7 days.
- China → US East Coast: Delivery time increased by 0.8 days — from 50.8 to 51.6 days.
All these changes should be taken into account when planning logistics for August-September – especially if urgent imports from China to the EU or the USA are important.
